What is Civil War?
Intrastate conflicts
in Africa have been common since the majority of African states gained
independence in the 1960s from their colonial masters. Civil war can be defined as “large-scale,
organized, and sustained conflict between a state and domestic political actors,”
“exclude one-sided violence,” and are “high intensity conflicts” (Hironaka, p.
3). Civil wars also include major
casualties and are resource intensive.
The Correlates of War, a group that catalogs statistical data on
conflicts around the world, describes civil war as conflicts that generate over
1000 annual battle-related deaths (Sarkees, p. 1). Monica Duffy Toft used a
more precise definition of civil wars in her examination of the outcomes of
civil wars since 1940. Toft’s six
criteria for a civil war are:
(1) the focus of the war was control
over which group would govern the political unit; (2) there were at least two
groups of organized combatants; (3) one of the combatants was an
internationally recognized state; (4) there were at least 1,000 battle deaths
per year on average; (5) the ratio of total deaths had to be at least 95
percent to 5 percent, meaning the stronger side had to have suffered at least 5
percent of the casualties; and (6) the war had to have begun within the
boundaries of an internationally recognized state (Toft, p. 12).
Many African states
have experienced conflicts approached or exceed this threshold of civil war
however sometimes this is difficult to quantify as government forces or the
eventual victors may attempt to cover up atrocities and other evidences of
casualties. African data may be
systematically unavailable or incomplete due to lack of record keeping or poor
procedures (Lemke, P. 117). Regardless
of the official body count or reaching the status of an “official” civil war,
conflicts that have generated mass casualties in Africa have stunted its growth
and resulted in negative consequences for its inhabitants.
Why do Civil Wars Happen?
Many scholars and
experts claim a number of reasons for the cause of civil wars and no one factor
of combination of factors work in every case. Research has shown that greed, grievance, ethnic and racial
conflict, as well as political and religious differences have been cited by
combatants are reasons for engaging in civil wars. African wars have also been affected by colonial legacies
and outside actors. Secessionist
movements can also be included in the family of civil wars although the
unsuccessful movements usually have not generated enough casualties per annum
to qualify as an official civil war.
Greed. Modern
economists such as Paul Collier have attributed civil wars to issues of greed
especially in states that have rich mineral wealth that are easily lootable such
as oil, diamonds, or gold (Collier 1999, p. 3). The conflict could be caused by one group attempting to take
control of a precious resource from the state but may also benefit by
participating in the war. For
example, the Unita rebel group in Angola generated between $300 and $500
million per year by selling diamonds mined in the parts of Angola it controlled
(Martin, location 7233). During
the cold war the United States and its allies as well as the Soviet Union were
sending hundreds of millions of dollars to fund African governments and rebel
movements. In 1990 alone the US
provided over $50 million to Unita in Angola to fight the communist backed
government (James, p. 179). Leaders
of rebel movements that have defeated the government have also been handsomely
rewarded with government jobs that allow them to enhance their personal
fortunes through bribes, payoffs, misappropriation of funds, or other means of
corruption and financial mismanagement. Collier also described greed as a
personal motivator for members of rebel movements as rebel soldiers benefit
from criminal activity, protection rackets, and predation (Collier 1999, p.
9).
Grievance.
Rebel groups often try to appear more noble and motivated by grievances
such as fighting more equitable distribution of wealth or resources, political
rights, or past offenses committed by the government (Collier 1999, p. 4). This is especially the case with
autocratic and repressive governments where the people have no recourse or
manner in which to address their grievances with the government. Conflicts in Chad have been in part
motivated by competition for scarce resources like good land and pasture and
access, which has been manipulated by the government (ICG, 2009).
Ethnic and Racial Conflict.
Civil wars based on ethnic and racial conflicts could in some cases also
be considered as a grievance if the government has persecuted an ethnic or
racial group. Examples include the
majority Hutu government massacring nearly a million Tutsis in Rwanda but also
the Tutsi rebel forces that drove the Hutu génocidaires from Rwanda and took
over the government in 1994 (Martin, location 6157). The civil war in Sudan that resulted in the secession of
South Sudan was often incorrectly oversimplified as a conflict between the
Arabs in the north and Africans in the south (Mamdani 2009, p. 148). Although not enough people died in the
South African struggle against apartheid to be classified as a civil war, it
was still a conflict between white settlers and black South Africans (Hironaka,
p.3).
Political and Religious Differences. African states gained their independence during the Cold War
and were pressured by the Soviet Union and United States to choose sides with
incentives of huge trade and economic packages. Some states chose communism and espoused socialist ideals
while others became democracies.
However, the US funded rebel groups that fought against communist
governments and vice versa. In
Angola, communist forces from the Soviet Union and Cuba supported the
government and the US funded the Unita rebel group in a civil war that lasted
41 years from 1961 to 2002 (Evans, p. 82). The civil war in Sudan was also described as a religious war
where the Muslim north was oppressing the Christian south (Alessi & Frazer,
2012). The Lord’s Resistance Army
in Uganda was also fighting to establish rule by the Ten Commandments (IRIN,
2007). The Tuareg rebels in Mali
were fighting to establish an Islamic state in secular Mali (Meo, 2012).
Combination of Reasons.
Groups involved in civil war have a variety of reasons for engaging in
armed conflict that they feel are worth risking their lives. It’s a combination of greed and
grievance and other outside factors and the reasons why combatants fight can
change. As already referenced
above, the civil war between Sudan and South Sudan was partially ethnic,
racial, and religiously based, but also economic, as the government of Sudan in
Khartoum did not share the wealth from oil exports with the south until a 2005
peace deal (Brunwasser, 2011).
Colonial Legacies.
During the colonial period in Africa, European governments established
systems that often benefitted one group over others or divided groups and
created a hierarchy of groups. For
example in Rwanda the Belgians issued identity cards to Hutus and Tutsis and
decided that the Tutsis were more intelligent and favored them with government
jobs and education. Establishing
the Tutsis as elites and superior created an ethnic tension, which was later
exploited by the Hutu government as a reason to exterminate all Tutsis (Martin,
location 1860). The Belgians also
established tribal authorities in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo
(DRC) where certain groups were designated as tribal authorities and given
responsibility and the power to rule in their areas and all other groups were subject
to the tribal authorities (Mamdani 2002, p. 237).
In many cases the arbitrary
colonial borders established at the Berlin Conference in 1885 split ethnic
groups between countries or grouped former enemies into the same territory
making democratic rule and cooperation difficult (Herbst, p. 77). For example, President Deby in Chad is
a member of Zaghawa ethnic group, which is mainly based in Sudan but due to
ethnic allegiances felt obligated to support his ethnic group in rebellion
against the government of Sudan (ICG, 2009). The colonial colligation of different groups has also given
rise to secessionist movements that seek to establish their own states as in
the Casamance in Senegal, Cabinda in Angola, Azawad in Mali, and Katanga in
DRC. In the Casamance the people
feel isolated from the government in Dakar and are physically separated from
the rest of the country by Gambia (IRIN, 2004). Cabinda is also physically separated from Angola by the DRC
but provides much of the oil revenue for Angola (IRIN, 2011). Rebels in northern Mali drove
government forces from the region in April 2012 and declared the establishment
of Azawad as a separate country (Meo, 2012). Katanga attempted to secede after the DRC obtained its independence
in 1960 but was forced to remain a part of the DRC after foreign military
intervention (Martin, location 1200).
Policy Options to Resolve Civil Wars.
Civil wars result in
the deaths and injuries of thousands of combatants but also civilian
populations that are in the line of fire or exploited and persecuted by either
government or rebel forces as part of the conflict. Civil wars also disrupt trade, markets, agriculture, and
normal life where it may not be safe for civilians to go to school or work in
the fields. Marauding bands of
soldiers and rebels can spread diseases including HIV/AIDS if they use rape as
a weapon (Davenport & Loyle, p. 4).
Civil wars also can have spillover effects that spread into neighboring
countries. For example civil war
in Liberia spread into Sierra Leone and affected parts of Cote d’Ivoire as well
(Martin, location 6568). Civil
wars also cause the mass relocation of people as they move to avoid the
conflict and become classified as Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) or
refugees if they manage to find refuge in another country. Northern Kenya hosts several refugee
camps that hold hundreds of thousands who have fled ongoing conflict in Somalia
(Associated Press, 2012). One
estimate puts the cost of a civil war to the country and surrounding neighbors
at $64 billion (Collier 2007, p. 31).
Negotiated Settlement. The
international community has sought to end civil wars and conflicts in order to
save lives by forcing the combatants to reach a settlement at the negotiating
table. Third party actors such as
the United States, France, Great Britain, and the United Nations have brought
groups to negotiate the end of war through bribes, coercion, and offers of
immunity. For example in Liberia
the civil war brought to an end by offering President Charles Taylor immunity
for his crimes in Liberia and a “soft-landing” in exile in Nigeria (Martin,
location 6794).
Since the 1990s
negotiated settlements has been the method of choice for ending civil wars but
have been largely ineffective.
Monica Duffy Toft surveyed 137 civil wars between 1940 and 2007, of
which 22 wars of 19% of the total ended in negotiated settlements (Toft, p.
13). She found that these wars
resulted in “significantly more deaths,” lasted longer, and are more likely to
reoccur (Toft, p. 20). Toft also
discovered that wars that end in negotiated settlement are less likely than
other ends of civil war resolution to develop democratic governments and had no
economic advantages over wars that ended in other ways (Toft, p. 27).
Total Victory. The second policy option in the resolution of civil wars is
to allow the combatants fight the war to victory where one force subjugates the
other and achieved dominance. This
would be a bloody option where many will die as the one force overwhelms and defeats
the other but achieves the result of a clear winner who can rule and establish
a government to run the country. Monica
Duffy Toft determined from her research that civil wars that end in victory
“were nearly twice as likely to remain settled than those concluded through
negotiated settlement or a cease-fire/stalemate” (Toft, p. 16). In civil wars that flared up again,
those that followed negotiated settlement were nearly twice as deadly as those
that followed a victory (Toft, p. 20).
This may be in part because in achieving a victory the opposition lost
significant capacity to wage war in troops and equipment whereas many times
negotiated settlements are often used as rearming and reequipping periods where
combatants prepare to fight again without losing significant capacity.
Stalemate. A third possible outcome for civil
wars is a stalemate or ceasefire where neither side is able to achieve an
advantage and destroy the other nor able to meet at the bargaining table for a
negotiated settlement. North and
South Korea fought to a stalemate in the 1950s and despite a ceasefire
agreement are still technically at war (Department of State, 2012). Somalia is an example of a stalemate
where no one group has been able to assert its dominance over the country and
the fighting continues. Recently
neighbors and the African Union have sent forces into Somalia to try to help
the government suppress the fighting and reassert its authority but the
government controls little territory outside the capital (Sheikh & Omar,
2012). A stalemate or ceasefire
can flare up again if one side believes it has acquired the capacity to gain
the advantage and victory through the acquisition of new technology, weapons,
or assistance or if their enemy has somehow been diminished.
Recommendations.
According to the research by Monica Duffy Toft it appears the best
outcome in the long term is to allow combatants to fight to victory and to work
with the victors. This course of
action may not be politically acceptable, as it requires outsiders to observe
and not interfere as people are being killed and civilians flee or are caught
in the crossfire. However, foreign
governments, multinational corporations, and nongovernmental agencies have also
supported either the government or rebel groups in consideration of their own
interests. For example, European
nations and NATO forces provided funding, weapons and air support to rebels in
Libya in their overthrow of the Libyan government in 2011 (NATO, 2012). The Cold War also saw many governments
and rebel groups supported by different interests.
Rebuilding African States.
Once civil wars come
to an end the rebuilding process begins.
In order for rebuilding to take place in earnest the underlying reasons
for the war should be resolved. In
the case of a victory the victor can establish policies to resolve their
issues. However, if the concerns
of the vanquished are also not considered malaise will persist and be
manifested by disobedience, rebel actions, and a possible return to open
conflict (Mkandawire, p. 208). For
a government to be successful it needs a process by which the population can
address its concerns and changes can be made to avoid the renewing of
bloodshed. A negotiated settlement
to end a civil war also requires the creation of a new government that
incorporates both parties and addresses their issues as agreed upon in the
settlement. The military has to
incorporate rebel combatants as to not give the government an advantage if
there was a return to open conflict.
An important part of standing down the rebel army is also to provide a
process of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) so the rebel
soldiers have an incentive to stop fighting (Walter, p. 134.)
Outside agents can be a huge boost for the rebuilding of the state as
they can provide security to guarantee a negotiated settlement as with the UN
in Liberia where 15,000 troops have maintained a general peace (Harris, p. 377). Foreign donors and NGOs can also assist
with rebuilding institutions and infrastructure in order to allow the state to
resume function and project authority throughout its territory.
Just as integration
of the government and military are key for achieving unity, integration amongst
the population is also vital. Collier
discovered that “social fractionalization as a combination of ethnic and
religious divisions… significantly reduces the risk of conflict,” creating
societies that are “safer than homogenous societies” (Collier 1999, p. 6). The partitioning of a country and
separation by groups can accentuate differences, increase violence, and
generate new conflicts as people are moved against their will (Kaufmann, p.
123). Leaders of the partitioned
area of a homogeneous group would also have incentive to accentuate the
differences from the others, leading to intolerance, rhetoric, and conditions
that could lead to a renewed conflict.
The partition of Sudan and the creation of the new state of South Sudan
has not solved the conflict and fighting continues between the two countries
(Alessi & Frazer, 2012).
Other things
essential for the creation of an ideal government are representative elections,
a constitution and body of laws that protects the rights of the minority, the
establishment of the rule of law, transparency, and accountability. Checks and balances in the government
that allow for the curbing of powers and removal of persons who violate the
rules is also critical to avoid rise of an autocratic government. Civilian control of the government and
values training for the military will also diminish the possibility for the
military to state a coup and commit abuses against the civilian
population. Economic prosperity
and sharing of the wealth among the population will also decrease many of the
grievances that are accentuated by poverty. The development of a civil society and institutions not
linked to the government also provides space for discourse, development of the
community, and support networks that can decrease the need for government
assistance and programs.
Reconciliation and transitive justice are also important to integrate
former combatants and communities in order to allow the country to move
on.
Summary. Civil wars caused by greed, grievance,
intergroup tensions, and exploitations by the government have resulted in the
deaths of millions across the African continent. Research into the outcomes of civil wars have revealed that
wars ended in victory by one group has resulted in fewer deaths, greater
stability, and a reduced likelihood of renewed conflict as compared to
negotiated settlements. Once war
has come to an end it is important to integrate the government, military, and
civilian population and restore institutions and infrastructure to allow the
country and society to function again.
A safety release valve or method of redress with the government is also
essential to allow the people to address their concerns and effectuate change
without having to resort to violence.
